Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 20,043
2 New Jersey 18,880
3 Massachusetts 15,400
4 Rhode Island 15,304
5 District of Columbia 13,952
6 Connecticut 12,742
7 Delaware 10,725
8 Illinois 10,686
9 Maryland 10,514
10 Louisiana 10,485
11 Nebraska 8,905
12 Iowa 7,802
13 Mississippi 6,935
14 South Dakota 6,838
15 Michigan 6,678
16 Pennsylvania 6,591
17 Virginia 6,534
18 Indiana 6,244
19 Arizona 5,654
20 Alabama 5,570
21 Minnesota 5,554
22 Georgia 5,388
23 Colorado 5,150
24 Utah 4,823
25 New Mexico 4,800
26 Tennessee 4,702
27 Arkansas 4,508
28 North Carolina 4,494
29 North Dakota 4,159
30 California 4,133
31 Wisconsin 4,058
32 Kansas 4,050
33 New Hampshire 3,997
34 South Carolina 3,992
35 Florida 3,851
36 Nevada 3,847
37 Washington 3,712
38 Ohio 3,629
39 Texas 3,430
40 Kentucky 2,952
41 Missouri 2,794
42 Oklahoma 2,250
43 Maine 2,109
44 Idaho 2,033
45 Wyoming 1,924
46 Puerto Rico 1,879
47 Vermont 1,810
48 Oregon 1,475
49 West Virginia 1,325
50 Alaska 1,060
51 Montana 589
52 Hawaii 516

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Arizona 238
2 Louisiana 144
3 Mississippi 126
4 Arkansas 122
5 Utah 119
6 Alabama 115
7 Texas 114
8 South Carolina 113
9 Florida 110
10 Tennessee 94
11 North Carolina 93
12 California 87
13 Nebraska 84
14 Rhode Island 83
15 Georgia 73
16 Nevada 70
17 Iowa 69
18 Maryland 68
19 Kansas 63
20 Delaware 61
21 South Dakota 57
22 Indiana 56
23 Oklahoma 56
24 New Mexico 54
25 Virginia 49
26 Washington 49
27 Minnesota 48
28 Oregon 45
29 Illinois 44
30 Wisconsin 44
31 Idaho 41
32 Missouri 41
33 Kentucky 40
34 North Dakota 38
35 District of Columbia 37
36 Ohio 36
37 Colorado 31
38 Connecticut 31
39 New York 31
40 Wyoming 31
41 New Jersey 30
42 New Hampshire 28
43 Pennsylvania 28
44 Massachusetts 26
45 Puerto Rico 20
46 Alaska 19
47 West Virginia 15
48 Michigan 14
49 Maine 10
50 Montana 9
51 Hawaii 3
52 Vermont 1

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 1,579
2 New Jersey 1,437
3 Connecticut 1,183
4 Massachusetts 1,121
5 Rhode Island 826
6 District of Columbia 741
7 Louisiana 658
8 Michigan 604
9 Illinois 527
10 Pennsylvania 498
11 Maryland 495
12 Delaware 437
13 Indiana 367
14 Mississippi 315
15 Colorado 283
16 New Hampshire 242
17 Minnesota 240
18 Georgia 238
19 Ohio 223
20 New Mexico 215
21 Iowa 214
22 Virginia 185
23 Arizona 172
24 Alabama 161
25 Washington 161
26 Nevada 153
27 Missouri 150
28 Florida 140
29 California 133
30 Nebraska 123
31 Wisconsin 122
32 Kentucky 119
33 South Carolina 119
34 North Carolina 114
35 North Dakota 102
36 Oklahoma 91
37 South Dakota 88
38 Vermont 88
39 Kansas 85
40 Maine 75
41 Tennessee 72
42 Texas 72
43 Arkansas 65
44 Idaho 49
45 West Virginia 49
46 Puerto Rico 46
47 Utah 46
48 Oregon 43
49 Wyoming 31
50 Montana 18
51 Alaska 13
52 Hawaii 12

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Rhode Island 13
2 Massachusetts 5
3 Mississippi 5
4 New Jersey 5
5 Illinois 4
6 District of Columbia 3
7 Georgia 3
8 Louisiana 3
9 Maryland 3
10 Nebraska 3
11 Arizona 2
12 Indiana 2
13 Iowa 2
14 New Hampshire 2
15 New Mexico 2
16 New York 2
17 Pennsylvania 2
18 Alabama 1
19 Arkansas 1
20 California 1
21 Colorado 1
22 Connecticut 1
23 Delaware 1
24 Florida 1
25 Minnesota 1
26 Missouri 1
27 North Carolina 1
28 Ohio 1
29 South Carolina 1
30 South Dakota 1
31 Tennessee 1
32 Texas 1
33 Utah 1
34 Virginia 1
35 Alaska 0
36 Hawaii 0
37 Idaho 0
38 Kansas 0
39 Kentucky 0
40 Maine 0
41 Michigan 0
42 Montana 0
43 Nevada 0
44 North Dakota 0
45 Oklahoma 0
46 Oregon 0
47 Puerto Rico 0
48 Vermont 0
49 Washington 0
50 West Virginia 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 129,387 1 99
Lake Tennessee 98,204 2 99
Dakota Nebraska 87,037 3 99
Buena Vista Iowa 82,569 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 76,397 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 10,780 228 92
Richland South Carolina 5,703 570 81
Orange California 2,896 1126 64
Pierce Washington 2,738 1183 62
York South Carolina 2,491 1275 59

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 3,547 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,393 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,165 3 99
Early Georgia 3,042 4 99
Northampton Virginia 2,306 5 99
Richland South Carolina 178 652 79
Davidson Tennessee 131 796 74
Pierce Washington 98 958 69
Orange California 77 1079 65
York South Carolina 39 1456 53

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons